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Civil-Comp Proceedings
ISSN 1759-3433
CCP: 61
Edited by: B. Kumar and B.H.V. Topping
Paper IX.2

Identification of Sites for Road Accident Remedial Work by Bayesian Statistical Methods: An Example of Uncertain Inference

B.G. Heydecker and J. Wu

Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, England

Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper
B.G. Heydecker, J. Wu, "Identification of Sites for Road Accident Remedial Work by Bayesian Statistical Methods: An Example of Uncertain Inference", in B. Kumar, B.H.V. Topping, (Editors), "Novel Design and Information Technology Applications for Civil and Structural Engineering", Civil-Comp Press, Edinburgh, UK, pp 223-233, 1999. doi:10.4203/ccp.61.9.2
Road accident remedial work can be effected in many cases by implementing low cost engineering measures. These are intended to restore the safety performance of sites to which they are applied to prevailing levels according to their kind, traffic flows and design. This approach is therefore appropriate to sites where the mean accident frequency exceeds a standard value for that site. In this paper. we present analyses that provide quantitative indications of which sites should be considered for this kind of treatment according to their accident record. We describe four measures that are informative in this respect - the count of accidents, an estimate of the mean accident frequency, the amount by which this estimate exceeds a standard value, and the probability that it does so. We illustrate the use of this analysis by applying it to a dataset of accident records of priority controlled road junctions and compare the results of the different analyses.

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