
CivilComp Proceedings ISSN 17593433
CCP: 83 PROCEEDINGS OF THE EIGHTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTATIONAL STRUCTURES TECHNOLOGY
Edited by: B.H.V. Topping, G. Montero and R. Montenegro
Paper 31 The Domino Effect and Integrated Probabilistic Approaches for Risk Analysis
Q.B. Nguyen ^{1}, A. Mébarki ^{1}, F. Mercier ^{2}, R. Ami Saada ^{1} and M. Reimeringer ^{2}^{1}Laboratoire de Mécanique, University of MarnelaVallée, France
^{2}Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), France
Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper
Q.B. Nguyen, A. Mébarki, F. Mercier, R. Ami Saada, M. Reimeringer, "The Domino Effect and Integrated Probabilistic Approaches for Risk Analysis", in B.H.V. Topping, G. Montero, R. Montenegro, (Editors), "Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Computational Structures Technology", CivilComp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 31, 2006. doi:10.4203/ccp.83.31
Keywords: domino effect, industrial explosions accident, mechanical impact, tanks, projectile, penetration, perforation, risk, reliability, probabilistic methods.
Summary
The present paper deals with domino effect analysis for industrial facilities.
An explosion or accident may generate various sets of projectiles. In their
trajectory, they may impact on other existing facilities, such as tanks under
highpressure or other strategic components or installations. If the
impacted targets fail, this may give rise to other sets of projectiles and so on. These
potential series of accidents are known as the domino effect.
A probabilistic approach is developed by the authors. The probability of the domino
effect occurring requires three main steps:
 Probabilistic modelling of the source term (the first set of projectiles): the probability
of the first explosion occurrence and therefore number, masses, velocities,
departure angles, geometrical form and dimensions, constitutive materials properties
are described with probabilistic distributions [1,5,6,7,8].
 Probabilistic modelling of the target term (first set of impacted targets): number of
impacting projectiles, velocities, incidence angles and energy at impact, constitutive
materials and the dimensions of the impacted targets, projectiles penetration
depths into the targets are also described with probabilistic distributions [4,7].
 Evaluation of the risks of second set of explosions that may take place in the impacted
components [2,3,9,10,11].
Twodimensional simulations are undertaken within this probabilistic framework:
 For the probabilistic description of the source term, the authors have collected existing
models from the literature [1,5,6,7,8].
 The authors propose new models for the impact (the probability of impact which
depends on the trajectory and geometry of both the target and projectile: ellipses,
cylinders and planar plates, in a first step) and the penetration depth when there is
impact. A simplified mechanical model is developed in the case of cylindrical rods
impacting on rectangular plates, both are made of metal [10]. The estimated penetration
depth into the target is compared with the experimental data (four sets of
data) collected fromthe literature [2,3,9,10,11] with the following features: projectile
mass ranging from 0.1g up to 250kg, projectile velocity ranging from 10 m/s up to
2100 m/s, projectiles diameters ranging from 1.5 mm up to 90 mm, target strength
ranging from 300 MPa up to 1400 MPa and incidence angles ranging from 0^{o} up
to 70^{o}.
Monte Carlo simulations were run in order to calculate the different probabilities: the
probability of impact, the distribution of the penetration depth and the probability of the
domino effect.
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