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J.C.O. Nielsen¹, B. Zuada Coelho², K. Nasrollahi³ and D. Wong⁴

¹Department of Mechanical Engineering/CHARMEC, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
²Deltares, Safe and Resilient Infrastructure, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands
³Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Division of Structural Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
⁴Deltares, Soil Water and Structures, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands

doi:10.4203/ccc.15.18.1

J.C.O. Nielsen, B. Zuada Coelho, K. Nasrollahi, D. Wong, "On the Influence of Iterative Model Updating on Long-Term Differential Settlement in Ballasted Railway Tracks", in J. Pombo, (Editor), "Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance ", Civil-Comp Press, Edinburgh, UK, Online volume: CCC 15, Paper 18.1, 2026, doi:10.4203/ccc.15.18.1

Keywords: differential settlement, dynamic vehicle–track interaction, iterative approach, ballasted track, track geometry degradation, spatially varying support stiffness.

Abstract

Predicting differential track settlement and degradation of vertical track geometry (longitudinal level) remains a significant challenge for railway maintenance planning, particularly on lines with variable support conditions. This study compares two strategies for long-term settlement prediction in open ballasted railway tracks: a non-iterative approach based on a constant load spectrum, and an iterative approach in which the track model is updated as settlement evolves. Dynamic vehicle--track interaction analyses are performed using two independent numerical frameworks, from which maximum sleeper--ballast contact forces for each sleeper are obtained and used as input to empirical settlement models. The non-iterative approach assumes a fixed load distribution throughout the analysis, whereas the iterative approach captures the evolving track geometry and the associated redistribution of loads. The results show that both approaches yield similar overall settlement trends and spatial patterns. However, the iterative approach provides additional insight into load redistribution and the influence of evolving support conditions, which are important for assessing localised track behaviour. The comparison highlights when simplified non-iterative modelling is sufficient, as well as the added value of iterative analysis for representing long-term track behaviour.

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Front Page Browse CCC CCP CSETS CTR IJRT Other Authors Search Purchase Guide FAQ Contact us	Civil-Comp Conferences ISSN 2753-3239 CCC: 15 PROCEEDINGS OF THE SEVENTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY: RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE Edited by: J. Pombo Paper 18.1 On the Influence of Iterative Model Updating on Long-Term Differential Settlement in Ballasted Railway Tracks J.C.O. Nielsen¹, B. Zuada Coelho², K. Nasrollahi³ and D. Wong⁴ ¹Department of Mechanical Engineering/CHARMEC, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden ²Deltares, Safe and Resilient Infrastructure, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands ³Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Division of Structural Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden ⁴Deltares, Soil Water and Structures, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands doi:10.4203/ccc.15.18.1 Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper J.C.O. Nielsen, B. Zuada Coelho, K. Nasrollahi, D. Wong, "On the Influence of Iterative Model Updating on Long-Term Differential Settlement in Ballasted Railway Tracks", in J. Pombo, (Editor), "Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance ", Civil-Comp Press, Edinburgh, UK, Online volume: CCC 15, Paper 18.1, 2026, doi:10.4203/ccc.15.18.1 Keywords: differential settlement, dynamic vehicle–track interaction, iterative approach, ballasted track, track geometry degradation, spatially varying support stiffness. Abstract Predicting differential track settlement and degradation of vertical track geometry (longitudinal level) remains a significant challenge for railway maintenance planning, particularly on lines with variable support conditions. This study compares two strategies for long-term settlement prediction in open ballasted railway tracks: a non-iterative approach based on a constant load spectrum, and an iterative approach in which the track model is updated as settlement evolves. Dynamic vehicle--track interaction analyses are performed using two independent numerical frameworks, from which maximum sleeper--ballast contact forces for each sleeper are obtained and used as input to empirical settlement models. The non-iterative approach assumes a fixed load distribution throughout the analysis, whereas the iterative approach captures the evolving track geometry and the associated redistribution of loads. The results show that both approaches yield similar overall settlement trends and spatial patterns. However, the iterative approach provides additional insight into load redistribution and the influence of evolving support conditions, which are important for assessing localised track behaviour. The comparison highlights when simplified non-iterative modelling is sufficient, as well as the added value of iterative analysis for representing long-term track behaviour. download the full-text of this paper (PDF, 15 pages, 509 Kb) go to the previous paper go to the next paper return to the table of contents return to the volume description
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