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CivilComp Proceedings
ISSN 17593433 CCP: 91
PROCEEDINGS OF THE TWELFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CIVIL, STRUCTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING COMPUTING Edited by: B.H.V. Topping, L.F. Costa Neves and R.C. Barros
Paper 71
Analytical Approximation to the Reliability of Linear Systems for Robust Design A.A. Taflanidis
Department of Civil Engineering and Geological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, United States of America A.A. Taflanidis, "Analytical Approximation to the Reliability of Linear Systems for Robust Design", in B.H.V. Topping, L.F. Costa Neves, R.C. Barros, (Editors), "Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering Computing", CivilComp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 71, 2009. doi:10.4203/ccp.91.71
Keywords: first passage reliability, stationarity, model uncertainty, asymptotic approximation, robust stochastic design, multiple design points.
Summary
Calculation of system reliability is one of the most difficult problems in stochastic analysis of dynamical systems. This task is often referred to as solving the firstpassage problem and it is defined as the determination of the probability that within some given time duration, the output trajectory of a system outcrosses the boundary of a safe region that defines acceptable performance. The system model parameters, based on the available knowledge, may either be certain or include some level of uncertainty. This paper focuses on an analytical approximation for the stationary reliability of linear dynamic systems with higher dimensional output and on its application to the robust design of engineering systems.
Initially a recently published [1] analytical approximation for the firstpassage problem (assuming known system parameters) is reviewed, that calculates the system reliability using the outcrossing rate over the boundary of the safe region. This rate is approximated by a summation of the individual outcrossing rates over each linear surface of this boundary. Computational issues are discussed for taking into account the spatial (at different parts of the boundary) and temporal (at different times) correlation of the failure events. Numerical approximations are established for evaluating both these effects. Then, the extension to systems with uncertain model parameters is presented. This requires evaluation of multidimensional probabilityintegrals and an existing asymptotic expansion is suggested for this task. This expansion involves solving (numerically) for the local maxima (design points) of the integrand and accurately calculating the hessian matrix at these locations. Problems arise in both these tasks due to the numerical approximations (as discussed before) that were established for calculating the outcrossing rate. Efficient approaches are discussed for addressing these problems. A novel methodology is also developed for accounting for the contributions of multiple design points. An alternative calculation, based on stochastic simulation with importance sampling is also considered for the reliability integral. The implications to robust stochastic design are discussed, when the above methods are used for evaluation of system reliability. In particular, the effect of the errors introduced by the numerical and asymptotic approximations is addressed and methodologies for reducing their relative or absolute importance are presented. An illustrative example is presented that addresses the concepts discussed in this paper. It considers the robustoptimization of a mass damper for improvement of the reliability of a threestory structure under stochastic earthquake loading. The approach for addressing the existence of multiple design points is shown to be highly efficient. Also, the importance of explicitly considering the uncertainties in the system description is demonstrated. References
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