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Computational Science, Engineering & Technology Series
ISSN 1759-3158
Edited by: N.D. Lagaros, Y. Tsompanakis and M. Papadrakakis
Chapter 9

Metamodel Assisted Performance-Based Optimization for Hospital Systems

G.P. Cimellaro, A.M. Reinhorn and M. Bruneau

Department of Civil, Structural & Environmental Engineering, State University of New York, Buffalo NY, United States of America

Full Bibliographic Reference for this chapter
G.P. Cimellaro, A.M. Reinhorn, M. Bruneau, "Metamodel Assisted Performance-Based Optimization for Hospital Systems", in N.D. Lagaros, Y. Tsompanakis and M. Papadrakakis, (Editors), "New Trends in Seismic Design of Structures", Saxe-Coburg Publications, Stirlingshire, UK, Chapter 9, pp 241-288, 2015. doi:10.4203/csets.37.9
Keywords: damage, disaster resilience, hospital, hospital capacity, emergency department, metamodel.

The chapter introduces an organizationalmodel describing the response of the hospital emergency department (ED). The hybrid simulation/analytical model (called "metamodel") is able to estimate the hospital capacity and dynamic response in real time and incorporate the influence of the damage of structural and non-structural components on the organizational ones. The waiting time is the main parameter of response and it is used to evaluate disaster resilience of health care facilities. Its behaviour is described using a double exponential function and its parameters are calibrated based on simulated data. The metamodel has been designated to cover a large range of hospital configurations and takes into account hospital resources, in terms of staff and infrastructures, operational efficiency and possible existence of an emergency plan, maximum capacity and behaviour both in saturated and over capacitated conditions. The sensitivity of the model to different arrival rates, hospital configurations, and capacities and the technical and organizational policies applied during and before the strike of the disaster has been investigated. This model becomes an important tool in the decision process either for the engineering profession or for the policy makers.

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