Keywords: high speed, ballast projection, weather forecast, speed regulation, risk assessment.

With the development a of high speed line, a new form of rail and rolling stock damage has become apparent during winter; ballast projection. Ballast particles might become airborne as a result of ice blocks falling from high speed trains on to the ballast bed. This might damage windows and the underside of trains thus increasing the rolling stock maintenance. During snow events the rail operator decreases the running speed in order to reduce this phenomenon and any damage to rolling stock. This has consequences for passengers in terms of traffic such as delayed and/or cancelled trains. Currently the decision to reduce running speed is taken empirically from weather forecasts and information given by train drivers and rail workers located on the line. It is well known that the phenomenon of snow accretion on high speed trains is difficult to handle and it is a hard task to characterize the consequences of ballast projection from in situ tests. This paper proposes an approach which combines weather forecasting and trajectography modelling for the ballast stone in order to propose commercial speed reductions to limit rolling stock and track damage. This procedure has been evaluated during the 2012/2013 winter on the East High Speed Line (HSL) in France and the South HSL for the 2013/2014 winter.

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