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Civil-Comp Proceedings
ISSN 1759-3433
CCP: 92
Edited by: B.H.V. Topping and Y. Tsompanakis
Paper 48

Risk Analysis and Computational Simulation of Accidents

P. Jelinkova1, A. Bernatik1 and O. Sucharda2

1Faculty of Safety Engineering, 2Faculty of Civil Engineering,
VŠB - Technical university of Ostrava, Czech Republic

Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper
P. Jelinkova, A. Bernatik, O. Sucharda, "Risk Analysis and Computational Simulation of Accidents", in B.H.V. Topping, Y. Tsompanakis, (Editors), "Proceedings of the First International Conference on Soft Computing Technology in Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering", Civil-Comp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 48, 2009. doi:10.4203/ccp.92.48
Keywords: simulation model of extraordinary events, industrial breakdown, explosion, fire, risk assessment, major accidents.

This paper discusses the application of mathematical models in a sphere of risk analysis and loss prevention. A concrete case study in the industrial steel company situated in the Czech Republic is described. The case study focuses on the system of gases in the company. Gases are substances which have physical and chemical properties and technical safety parameters [1]. The waste metallurgical gases such as blast furnace gas, coking gas, mixed gas and the technical gases such as acetylene, oxygen and nitrogen are used in the company [2]. Generally, gases can be stored in technological tanks and pipes. This paper considers the system in the pipelines.

The paper explains the principles of extraordinary events such as fires, explosions and discusses their influence on the surrounding environment and humans.

Mathematical models are used to evaluate behaviour of the chemical substance within its release from the storage [3]. The substances behave differently in accordance to their properties. The release of the substance can cause different extraordinary situations. Mathematical models take these into consideration. All these models work using the theoretical background and real inside and outside conditions [4].

TNO models and Multienergy models for the simulation of explosions and a Chamberlain model for the fire are described and explained. Mathematical models are used in the computational programs which can simulate real conditions of the extraordinary events [5]. In the paper the use of the programs ALOHA and EFFECTSPLUS are described. The case study is elaborate with the simulation of natural gas, coking gas and acetylene. Totally fifteen simulations are carried out using the ALOHA program and six using the program EFFECTSPLUS. All simulations are carried out using the real conditions in the company such as meteorological factors, temperature, wind speed and direction, inversion and process conditions. A comparison of the results is included in the closing part of the paper.

I. Bartlová, J. Damec, "Prevence technologických zarízení", (In Czech: "Prevention of technological devices"), SPBI, Edice spektrum 30, 2002.
Company technological documents
S. Ullmann, "Encyclopedia of industrial chemistry", ISBN 3-527-20113-0-89.
Methods for the calculation of physical effects due to releases of hazardous materials (liquids and gases), "Yellow Book", CPR 14E, third edition, TNO, 1997.
"Lees' Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Hazard identification, assessment and control", Third Edition, Edited by Sam Mannan, Elsevier, 2005.

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