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Civil-Comp Conferences
ISSN 2753-3239 CCC: 14
PROCEEDINGS OF THE SIXTEENTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTATIONAL STRUCTURES TECHNOLOGY Edited by: P. Iványi, J. Kruis and B.H.V. Topping
Paper 3.1
Predicting Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Grades Using Machine Learning and Explainable AI E.K. Nyarko1, S. Czarnecki2, A.D.R. Troncoso Garcia3, M. Hadzima-Nyarko4, F. Martinez Alvarez3, B. Bulajić5, E. Isik6 and D. Radu7
1Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Information Technology Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Croatia
Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper
E.K. Nyarko, S. Czarnecki, A.D.R. Troncoso Garcia, M. Hadzima-Nyarko, F. Martinez Alvarez, B. Bulajić, E. Isik, D. Radu, "Predicting Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Grades Using Machine Learning and Explainable AI", in P. Iványi, J. Kruis, B.H.V. Topping, (Editors), "Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on
Computational Structures Technology", Civil-Comp Press, Edinburgh, UK,
Online volume: CCC 14, Paper 3.1, 2026, doi:10.4203/ccc.14.3.1
Keywords: building damage grade, machine learning, seismic performance, PGA, random forest, neural network, gradient boosting.
Abstract
Machine learning techniques are increasingly being applied in civil engineering to improve the assessment of structural performance and post-earthquake damage evaluation. In this study, several machine learning approaches, including regression models, classification models, and Artificial Neural Networks, were investigated for the prediction of seismic building damage grades using a database composed of structural, geometrical, and seismic parameters collected after major earthquakes in Croatia and Türkiye. Different data stratification strategies were considered to evaluate the robustness and predictive capability of the developed models. The results demonstrated that machine learning methods can effectively capture complex nonlinear relationships associated with seismic damage assessment and provide accurate prediction of building damage grades. Among the investigated approaches, ensemble-based classification models and ANN architectures achieved the most favorable predictive performance depending on the adopted stratification strategy. To improve model transparency and engineering interpretability, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was additionally performed to investigate the influence of individual input variables on the predicted damage grades. The obtained results confirmed the potential of machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence techniques as efficient tools for rapid seismic damage assessment and decision support in post-earthquake engineering applications.
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