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Civil-Comp Conferences
ISSN 2753-3239
CCC: 14
PROCEEDINGS OF THE SIXTEENTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTATIONAL STRUCTURES TECHNOLOGY
Edited by: P. Iványi, J. Kruis and B.H.V. Topping
Paper 3.1

Predicting Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Grades Using Machine Learning and Explainable AI

E.K. Nyarko1, S. Czarnecki2, A.D.R. Troncoso Garcia3, M. Hadzima-Nyarko4, F. Martinez Alvarez3, B. Bulajić5, E. Isik6 and D. Radu7

1Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Information Technology Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Croatia
2Department of Materials Engineering and Construction Processes, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wrocław, Polska
3Data Science & Big Data Lab, Pablo de Olavide University, Spain
4Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Josip Juraj Strossmayer, University of Osijek, Croatia
5Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Serbia
6Department of Civil Engineering, Bitlis Eren University, Turkey
7Faculty of Civil Engineering, Transilvania University of Braşov, Romania

Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper
E.K. Nyarko, S. Czarnecki, A.D.R. Troncoso Garcia, M. Hadzima-Nyarko, F. Martinez Alvarez, B. Bulajić, E. Isik, D. Radu, "Predicting Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Grades Using Machine Learning and Explainable AI", in P. Iványi, J. Kruis, B.H.V. Topping, (Editors), "Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Computational Structures Technology", Civil-Comp Press, Edinburgh, UK, Online volume: CCC 14, Paper 3.1, 2026, doi:10.4203/ccc.14.3.1
Keywords: building damage grade, machine learning, seismic performance, PGA, random forest, neural network, gradient boosting.

Abstract
Machine learning techniques are increasingly being applied in civil engineering to improve the assessment of structural performance and post-earthquake damage evaluation. In this study, several machine learning approaches, including regression models, classification models, and Artificial Neural Networks, were investigated for the prediction of seismic building damage grades using a database composed of structural, geometrical, and seismic parameters collected after major earthquakes in Croatia and Türkiye. Different data stratification strategies were considered to evaluate the robustness and predictive capability of the developed models. The results demonstrated that machine learning methods can effectively capture complex nonlinear relationships associated with seismic damage assessment and provide accurate prediction of building damage grades. Among the investigated approaches, ensemble-based classification models and ANN architectures achieved the most favorable predictive performance depending on the adopted stratification strategy. To improve model transparency and engineering interpretability, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was additionally performed to investigate the influence of individual input variables on the predicted damage grades. The obtained results confirmed the potential of machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence techniques as efficient tools for rapid seismic damage assessment and decision support in post-earthquake engineering applications.

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